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Prediction for CME (2023-04-21T18:12:00-CME-001)CME Observed Time: 2023-04-21T18:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/24720/-1 CME Note: Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is a filament eruption starting around 2023-04-21T17:30Z visible in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304, as well as STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery near the vicinity of Active Region 3283. An EUV wave is visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 starting around 18:00Z, with an associated M1.7 flare peaking at 18:12Z. Post-eruptive dimming is visible in SDO AIA 193 starting around 18:15Z. Arrival of the shock of this CME at L1 is marked by an abrupt jump in total magnetic field to 27 nT and in solar wind speed from ~380 to over 500 km/s (with further increases to 34 nT and ~600 km/s respectively). There were several bouts of negative Bz, with the maximum negative value of -32 nT. The flux rope seems to arrive around 2023-04-24T01:19Z and is marked by smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components. CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-04-23T17:00Z Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: Max Kp: 8.0 Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-04-24T03:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h) Confidence that the CME will arrive: 99.0% Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0 Prediction Method: Other (SIDC) Prediction Method Note: Lead Time: 26.60 hour(s) Difference: -10.00 hour(s) Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-04-22T14:24Z |
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